IS MAMATA WORRIED?

Why is Mamata Banerjee so worried before West Bengal goes to polls starting April 17, 2014? She looked very confident when the poll dates were announced in March. Her political ambitions were very clear. From Brigade Parade Ground rally in Kolkata, the pitch for Mamata Banerjee’s prime ministerial dreams went high. While Mahasweta Devi to the Shahi Imam of the Tipu Sultan Mosque gave the call for crowning Mamata with the throne of prime minister, the Bengal chief minister herself sounded the war cry, “Delhi Chalo”, in Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose’s style.  This was only in last January. Things have drastically changed in the last one and a half months.

Mamata had a calculation in mind. She knew Left was not in a position to turn back in this election and pose a threat to Trinamool Congress. Even though she was going to fight, for the first time, a four cornered battle with Congress, CPIM and BJP, she was confident that she would bag over 30 seats and emerge as the third largest party in the country after BJP and Congress. Jayalalitha, she thought, would be a close fourth. She was probably right in her calculations. With gradually diminishing percentage of vote share in Bengal since 2008 panchayat elections, the Left doesn't have much to take away in this election, except a few seats. Congress has been pushed to certain pockets like Murshidabad and Malda. They can win maximum two seats. And BJP has no role to play in Bengal with their two to three percent vote share. So Trinamool Congress will almost have a cakewalk. 

There was a visible trend in vote share. Earlier, Left won election after election as they held on to their vote bank and the opposition votes used to get divided, the reason why Mamata always tied up with either Congress or BJP to avert the division of votes. Going by the last elections, this trend has reversed. TMC’s vote share has got consolidated around 43 per cent and the opposition votes got divided with the Left holding to a major share of about 31 per cent, Congress at 10 percent and BJP at three. It made Trinamool Congress so confident that they didn't hesitate to go alone in the panchayat elections. The positive results of the rural body elections pushed Mamata’s dream to the next level.

Mamata Banerjee thought it to be the right time to fulfill her national ambition. First she wanted to turn All India Trinamool Congress into a true all India party, following the rules of the Election Commission, by securing either the requisite number of seats or vote share and secondly she wanted to put herself in the driver’s seat in national politics. Her call for a Federal Front and allying with anti-graft crusader Anna Hazare were attempts to bolster her campaign to that direction. Subsequently it got a jolt with Anna deserting her and the regional satraps refusing to show their cards so openly now. Mamata concentrated on Bengal. She wanted to maximize the number of seats from Bengal. On the other hand there were indications that Mamata might extend outside support to the Narendra Modi-led NDA government, if BJP falls short of numbers, in lieu of a financial package to Bengal, a long standing demand of Mamata Banerjee government.

Narendra Modi, in Kolkata rally, floated the idea of “dono hath mein ladoo”, Modi at the centre and Mamata at the state. He didn’t aggressively attack Mamata, probably, keeping a door open. But suddenly we saw Mamata going for all out attack on Modi. Initially, we thought it to be a Mamata-strategy to keep her minority vote bank in good faith. Now as the days go by, an aggressive Mamata is taking on Narendra Modi with strong words: “We don’t want to see a face of riot… Modi has blood on his hands…don’t vote for BJP, they are trying to divide Bengal… BJP is like seasonal bird... Gujarat model is no model, etc.” At times it seems BJP is the main opposition party in Bengal and Left is nowhere. Mamata is not as worried about Left as much as she is about BJP.

Trinamool leadership has realized that BJP is here to spoil their game in Bengal. The opinion polls are predicting that BJP vote share in Bengal is going to rise as high as 12 per cent in the coming election. The ground reality is not different. Now the question is where will this extra 9 to 10 per cent vote come from? Left vote is not going to dwindle any further. The core Left voters will vote for the Left candidates. BJP will eat up TMC’s vote. One can deny but the manufactured Modi-wave is working in Bengal, too, especially among the youth. The TMC supporter who voted for TMC in 2011 to throw the Left out of power may well go and vote for Modi in 2014. This trend is evident at the local level. Seats like Alipurduars, Darjeeling, Krishnanagar, Basirhat, Barasat, Dumdum, Howrah, Serampore, Asansol, Birbhum and some more have turned vulnerable. BJP may not win all these seats, but the Left candidates may sail through defeating the TMC candidates.

Earlier, the conservative TMC leaders were hoping to win at least 30 seats from Bengal. Now the optimist TMC leaders are predicting 22 to 25 seats in this changing situation. Anything less than 30 will be a face loss for Mamata. She is trying hard to walk the extra mile to thwart the Modi-magic, at least in West Bengal.

GAMEPLAN

Is it going to be an election over development or secularism? BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi, who is seen to be the ‘maut ka saudagar’ by Congress party for 2002 Gujarat riots, is trying to project himself as the brand of new India, capturing the imagination of the youth, talking only of development and a united India, “Ek Bharat Sresth Bharat”. On the other hand the Congress party, which has ruled the country for last one decade and has been stung by a series of corruption related cases, is trying to divert the poll battle into a fight between secularism and communalism. They are constantly attacking Narendra Modi, who, they claim, is going to divide the country over religious lines and his track record can substantiate the claim. Congress president Sonia Gandhi’s meeting with the Shahi Imam of Jama Masjid, Sayeed Ahmed Bukhari, and the subsequent call of the Imam to vote for the Congress is a clear attempt to polarize the voters. At the same time it is nothing but to put development issue on the backburner.

Many thought that Narendra Modi will be the brand ambassador of aggressive Hinduttva of Rastriya Swayamsevak Sangh. During the election campaign or from the time Modi has been nominated as BJP's PM candidate, we have not seen Modi speaking of Hinduttva or Ram Temple the way we thought he would. He has stuck to his development agenda, but now the drama is unfolding in front our eyes act by act. The picture is getting clearer.

We are now discussing BJP manifesto and accusing the party of playing soft Hinduttva by promising ‘construction of Ram Temple within the framework of our constitution’, implementation of uniform civil code for the gender equality, ban on cow slaughter, etc.  While releasing the manifesto, Modi again reiterated his call for developing the nation. Does it mean that BJP has kept the issues like Ram Temple and cow slaughter, uniform civil code just to keep the RSS happy and essence of BJP ideology alive? Do we conclude that Modi is going to be the mascot of development and religion is not there on his agenda?

The RSS-BJP gameplan is a bigger one. We can’t trust BJP or Modi at their face value. They are, for now, being opportunistic, like those so-called secular parties, as far as playing the Hinduttva card is concerned. If Narendra Modi was so focussed in his pitch for development, then why did he choose to contest the Varanasi seat in Uttar Pradesh along with Vadadora in his home state Gujarat? BJP officially says it would help them to do well in eastern UP and Bihar. It is true BJP is banking on these two states to take their tally beyond 200. How are they going to achieve it? If deploying Modi’s man Friday Amit Shah was the first part of the gameplan, putting Modi as the Varanasi candidate is the second part of it. BJP is playing Hiduttva card where it needs to. In other parts of the country, Modi’s development pitch is working fine. People are joining in the Modi wave thinking him to be the saviour of the country. The fact is to win more than 40 out of 80 seats in UP and at least 25 seats in Bihar, BJP has to give an extra push. The push is to polarize the votes.

UP can easily be divided on religious line. While Hindu sentiment through various symbols of Hindu mythology is very strong in the state, there is about 26 per cent Muslim population.  BJP is trying to encash it.  The Samajwadi Party, seen to be the messiah of the Muslim community, is on the backfoot. Recently, we have heard Congress candidate Imran Masood's speech and then came BJP leader Amit Shah’s ‘revenge’ remark. Both the speeches are just glimpses of what is happening in UP. This is exactly what BJP wants it to be (and probably SP wants too). The number of communal violence in UP has gone up from 118 in 2012 to 247 in 2013 including Muzaffarnagar.  

Narendra Modi in his speech during the rally in Varanasi last December, didn’t mention Ram Temple, but played with a mix of religious sentiments and his development mantra. He talked elaborately about how river Ganga needs to be cleaned up and how Congress government failed to do that. Modi is just allowing the polarization to happen with tacit support. His party felicitated two MLAs Sangeet Som and Suresh Rana who were accused in Muzaffarnagar riots just before Modi arrived in Agra rally last November. And finally ‘har har Modi’ slogan is being chanted in Varanasi which has a history of communal violence since 1990s. This is nothing but to assure the core voters of BJP and the stakeholders of Hinduttva that BJP and Modi are on the track. We will have to wait and see what Narendra Modi does when BJP comes to power with absolute majority. Will he go back to the parochial agenda of Hindu Nationalism or stick to his agenda of developing the nation without any religious overtone.

HANDS OF TRUST

Politics changes its colour so fast that sometimes it becomes difficult to track the changing colours. The recent meeting between West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare has raised many questions. Why did Mamata Banerjee, who didn't approve of Anna Hazare's hunger strike at Delhi's Jantar Mantar over the Jan Lokpal Bill and had even abused Anna in close circle at that time, suddenly change her mind and embrace the old man ahead of the Lok Sabha polls? What was Anna's desperation to hold Mamata's hand to get into active politics? Anna used to maintain that politics is nothing but gutter and he distanced himself from his protegee Arvind Kejriwal when the Aam Admi Party was formed.

Many theories are doing the rounds. Let us be very clear that both Mamata Banerjee and Anna Hazare joined hands with a clear strategy in mind and to achieve their individual goals this Lok Sabha elecetions. The TMC chief has an aspiration. She is not uttering it in clear terms but she considers herself as one the Prime Ministerial candidates. She has her own national ambition after decimating the Left in Bengal. After quitting UPA II in September 2012, she gave a call for a Federal Front with the likes of Nitish Kumar, Navin Patnaik and Mulayam Singh Yadav provoking them over centre-state relations. The plan has been derailed by the initiative of the Left parties who are once again trying to get the regional players together to launch the oft-spoken Third Front. Mamata, at this moment, finds herself isolated in national politics. She needs to be politically relevant before the general elections.

Trinamool Congress has adapted a political line. They will not align with either Congress or Bharatiya Janata Party before the elections. They will try to get the maximum number of sears from West Bengal and turn the party into controlling force post elections. Mamata Banerjee is not yet disclosing her post poll strategy. Will she join NDA or give them outside support if they need more numbers to form the next government? It is not yet clear. TMC's campaign will be based on the performance of Mamata Banerjee's two and a half year government and how they want to make Bengal prominent in the national scene to get financial package for the state. Though allying with Congress will give TMC some advantage and help take its tally beyond 30, but TMC, so far, is talking of 'going alone' in Bengal. It doesn't mar their poll prospect though, despite the Left's attempt to reorganize their core vote base, BJP's likely increase in the vote percentage in Bengal and a split in anti-Left vote.

Mamata Banerjee wants to make some footprints outside Bengal. Originally TMC decided to field candidates in states like Tripura, Assam, Kerala and in some pockets of UP. Any political party in order to secure or retain the status of national party need to get certain percentage of votes across the country, if not seats. TMC wanted to make a dent into anti-Left votes mainly in states outside Bengal or make an attempt to win votes on individual local candidates' charisma. Beyond Bengal Mamata Banerjee doesn't hold a chance of winning too many seats this Lok Sabha elections.

At this juncture, Mamata's joining hands with Anna is very significant. To get out of the isolation, she needs an anchor in national politics. Her political options at the national level, before the poll, are limited. Anna gave her the oxygen. A sense of insecurity prevailed in Mamata's mind with the rise of AAP at the national level. Everyone started speaking of Arvind Kejriwal's simple lifestyle and how AAP connected with the people at the grassroots. AAP has also made an inroad into the vacuum available in this polarized political space. Mamata Banerjee, with her trademark cotton saree, hawai chappal and jhola, has always projected herself as the champion of the common man. She didn't like this medal shifting hands. Mamata, by tying up with Anna, is trying to compete with AAP to leave no room for them when it comes to being the 'controlling force' in the formation of the next government.

First of all she will have the weight of Anna Hazare's clean image behind her. Secondly, she can, by fielding some candidates from civil society, try to win some extra seats. Thirdly, she can mobilize more support for TMC and her pitch for Prime Minister's seat at the national level creating the buzz over Anna-Mamata joint initiative.

Anna Hazare, on the other hand, lost political significance after Kejriwal floated his party and won the Delhi assembly elections with massive support to become the chief minster. Anna wanted to make a comeback and his presence felt too. Despite the opposition crying foul over Mamata Banerjee's poor track record in curbing corruption, RTI mechanism and human rights issues, Anna, in the guise of his 17-point demand, sought to ally with Mamata. He can reactivate his civil society network and ensure his importance when the next government comes to power. Hoping to win 100 seats  across India and making Mamata the prime minister is to be considered as rhetoric for now.

Now let us come to the final theorty. If Mamata doesn't win many seats outside Bengal despite fielding candidates in various states, if Anna can't get much political mileage in terms of winning seats, who is going to lose or win? Of course not Mamata. Rather Arvind Kejriwal has a chance to lose out. As the trend is showing, Anna-Mamata will fight mainly those seats where AAP is going to contest. TMC will eat up their votes significantly. Who is going to benefit in this process? Ofcourse BJP. The impact of unreliable political player, AAP, can be minimized in terms of number of seats.

Some are saying this Anna-Mamata tie up is a BJP-RSS plant to defuse the AAP impact and get support from Mamata post elections. Do not forget Mamata can go a long way for Bengal's resurgence.

MEMORIES OF MAHALAYA

Mahalaya brings a lot of memories, mainly of childhood days. The earliest memory of Mahalaya remains, like any other Bengali, to be the renditions of Mahisasuramardini by Birendrakrishna Bhadra on Akashvani! This used to set the tone for Durga Puja. I was never an early riser. Getting up at 4 o'clock in the morning, despite my parents' insistence, was a tough task. Being half asleep and listening to the radio, the sound of chanting coming from almost all corners of the neighbourhood, was a dreamy experience at that time. However, if I hated Akashvani authority for airing the programme so early in the morning, I loved Doordarshan for telecasting the programme an hour later. DD used to care about those of us who would not be able to wake up early and missed Birendrakrishna Bhadra. The visuals used to compensate the voice for us.

 

I must admit, till date, I have not found anything as pure and holy as Birendrakrishna's chanting. But the main attraction of the television version of Mahisasuramardini was the emergence of Durga, how the manishis armed Devi and finally the fight between Durga and the Asura. One would lag behind among the friends if he didn't watch the television programme on Mahalaya. After all we had to discuss and share ‘expert comment’ on the details of the fight between Durga and Asura.  Even if one failed to claim, "I got up at 4 am and listened to the radio programme", he couldn't dare say, "I missed the TV's Mahalaya.

 

Another memory of Mahalaya is of course of my father going to Ganga for tarpan. It took me years to understand the significance of the ritual. I never had the opportunity to go with him to the river for tarpan. I was not supposed to go, as the ritual was restricted to those who lost their parents. I was told tarpan means offering water to the forefathers. But I could never comprehend why we offer water on the last day of pitripaksha and on the beginning of matripaksha!

 

Mahalaya means the puja is here. It is the day of chakhsmudan, drawing the eyes on the idol. We used to gather at the pandal waiting for the artist to do the most difficult job. For one month prior to the Puja, our afternoon adda used to be at the neighbourhood pandal where we used to get mesmerized seeing how a structure of bamboo, made of hay and clay would gradually come alive in the form of the Maa Durga and her children. My preference has always been of an angry Durga who is killing the demon!

 

Now the Mahalaya has lost the exclusivity of starting the day with Mahisasuramardini. In this age of youtube and CDs, Birendrakrishna Bhadra is no longer a once-in-a-year ritual; his voice is available throughout the year. Most importantly in Didi's regime, listening to his chanting is a must at every traffic signal in the city of Kolkata!

 

The funniest memory of Mahalaya draws me back to my journalism school. In the hostel, one of the Bengali friends brought a cassette of Mahisasurmardini. On the D-day that year our hostel mates, mostly non-Bengalis, gathered at a room early in the morning when the light had not properly come out. The room was full of the scent of incense sticks and the cassette was played. The sound box was on full volume. Though I was half asleep, I felt proud listening to Mahisasurmardini at the appropriate time even after staying outside Bengal and make it listen to our non-Bengali friends at the journalism school hostel. We all departed with a holy feeling. But at night during dinner, the enthusiastic friend who brought the cassette from Kolkata declared, "Friends, I am sorry. Today was not Mahalaya. It's tomorrow. I just called up home and found it. I goofed up with the date!" We all started laughing but one non-Bengali friend got really angry! He shouted, "You stupid fellow, you know I refused to eat non-veg throughout the day thinking this to be a holy day and stayed away from meat and fish! I will have to do without non-veg food again tomorrow only for you!"

 

I was not so serious about Mahalaya though!

REMINDER: ONCE AGAIN

"She is a prostitute. It was a deal that went wrong."

"What was she doing so late at night with her boyfriend and why did they take an empty bus at that hour?"

"They were intoxicated and must have felt a sexual urge. They must have enjoyed."

"What was the need for the photojournalist to go to an isolated area with her male colleague?"

Four different incidents of rape at Park Street in Kolkata, Delhi, Kamduni in West Bengal's Barasat and Mumbai. Four different comments, which reflect a common sentiment. It shows how majority of the people, not only men but women, too, perceive rape and rape victims.

I was excited to see a Tahrir Square-like agitation in New Delhi last winter. THe spontaneous movement created a hope of change. We demanded that the rapists be hanged. We wanted a change in law to bring in provisions for stricter punishment, better policing, fast track courts. Though the laws have been amended, the trial of the Delhi rape case is still on. The agitation has died down and women continue to be raped in different parts of the country. After Mumbai gangrape, the issue has once again hit the headlines. It seems we are back to square one. 

Last December, when I had gone to interview a woman activist,she, on hearing about my excitementover the angry reaction, asked me, "Are they really reacting?"

Now I believe, no spontaneous or made-for-TV agitation or movement can bring down the number of rape incidents in the country. Neither any change of law nor better police patrolling can prevent rapes. Unless we change our mentality towards women and rape vistims, nothing can stop the menace. All administrative measures can work as a catalyst, bu the real change will have to come from within.

The problem is as long as the horror doesn't hit out near and dear ones, we brush it aside as others' problem and feel free to cast aspersions on the tape victims before anything is proved. We go off to sleep happily saying my daughter, my sister or my wife don't go out late at night. The society remains vulnerable.

THE CRY FOR ALTERNATIVE

West Bengal panchayat elections have just got over and the ruling Trinamool Congress has emerged as a clean winner wiping out the Left from the rural bodies except in a few pockets. Since the perceived outrage against the TMC government didn’t really work in the panchayat elections, the results will definitely give a boost to the chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s belief that everything is concocted by the media and her leaders, party and the government are going in the right direction. In this situation the opposition can’t find much political space in the state, atleast in near future. It gives rise to the perennial question Bengal is facing for decades.

Will West Bengal keep on suffering simply because there is no alternative to the political formation that is ruling the state? Since my childhood I had seen my grandfathers and uncles lamenting about the Communist rule, or the misrule. As I grew up I have seen there were allegations and instances of atrocities by the Left. Despite that in every election the Left came out with flying colours. The name of the chief minister of Bengal would not change. It remained to be Jyoti Basu. Everyone criticized the government but asked themselves: Where is the alternative? I used to wonder why the Congress couldn’t defeat the Left in West Bengal when the same party is coming in and going out of power in various other states of the country! Cynics used to claim the Congress leaders were happy to be the regional satraps with their pockets of support base and enjoy the facilities provided by the Left leaders under the table. They wouldn’t like to take up the huge burden of running a government. 

Mamata Banerjee broke away from Congress with the allegation that it was not really opposed to CPIM and she launched a massive anti-CPIM movement. She enjoyed a huge popularity among a section of the people and created hope among them although her capabilities were suspect given her maverick style of functioning. Then there was also a problem of divided opposition. So question still remained: where is the alternative?

As the people, both at the urban and the rural level, were so disgusted with the Left rule, they, to my mind, without thinking much voted Mamata’s Trinamool Congress to power. Nandigram and Singur worked as the catalyst to the culmination of the anti-Left movement bringing together fringe socio-political groups which forced the change of guard. Many thought it was more like a mandate against the Left than for Mamata.

Now there is so much outcry over the failure of the new government, its functioning and most importantly the chief minister’s denial mode! The TMC rule seems to be the other side of the same coin we saw during the Left regime. Why is the opposition Left, which many thought would be a smart opposition, is failing to act? It seems the Left is waiting for the situation to be too ripe to take the Mamata government head on. No one can see the Left coming to power in near future. Are they waiting for a Singur or a Nandigram to happen? Probably they are. The way the Left’s organization has eroded, it will take time to repair. Before that there is an urgent need for an alternative leader which is missing. People who voted the Left out of power would not so easily repose faith in the leaders like Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, Biman Bose or Gautam Deb. So the Left wants to go step by step and wait for the people’s anger against the government to grow and explode. 

The problem is the anger against the rulers has always remained among the people. We saw it there especially in last 10 years of the Left rule. But it took time to take a shape electorally. It needed a leader to anchor the anger. We saw how Mamata Banerjee, on a rainy day, was shouting outside the gate of Taj Bengal hotel when Beni Santosha, the Indonesian industrialist, had come visiting Bengal to discuss chemical hub and other projects. There were five or six people behind her. We also saw how that sustained campaign turned that five or six into lakhs behind her during Singur and Nandigram. 

The Left is failing to capitalize on the issues which are creating outrage among the people against this government. Due to presence of electronic media, their job should have been easier. But the TMC government sees no political challenge before them in near future.

The unfortunate part of the West Bengal politics is it is so polarized that sporadic movement by fringe socio-politico organizations can’t do much in the state. Any movement to turn big and be electorally decisive has to be anchored by either the Left or the TMC. Till then one will continue to rule at their will and we will continue to lament: where is the alternative?

BONOMALI TUMI....

Aaj jemon kore gaichhe akash/temni kore gao go

I have always tried to keep myself detached and indifferent to any mrityusangbad. I have seen many people, near and dear ones, die but in most cases I have stayed away from their funerals or sraddha. The news came and went not leaving a long-lasting impact on my mind. There have been only sudden attack of memories that tell me about their absence in my life. Off late I have realized I fear death. I am scared of facing death in any form. 

But a person’s death, quite surprisingly, has left me devastated. I never realized how much the person had filled my heart and mind with his life and work. At 10 in the morning, one of my journalist friends told me, “hey Rituparno is no more”. I could not believe his words. After crosschecking the information, when I called my newsdesk, as the phone at the other end was ringing, I wondered if I was about to give them correct information or if it was a rumour. I doubted myself. The news of course came as a surprise to all. No one thought that the man would leave us so early. That was the moment since when the mon kharaper dista started piling up. I started missing him terribly. It was as if I had to speak to him, but I missed the bus.

In my journalistic career I had the chance to speak to him three or four times. It was for purely professional reasons. Many a time he refused to speak. But that was not the connection I had with Rituparno Ghosh. At the end of my school life, Unishe April, made its appearance on the big screen. Rituparno made his appearance in the industry in a big way and in my life as well. One of my uncle-friend actually took me inside Rituparno’s world as I watched one film after another. He taught me how Rituparno delved into women’s psychology and handled relations in his films, how he took care of details like Manikbabu used to and what his language of cinema was.

Apart from his films, my bonding with Rituparno’s thoughts was first through his chat show on Bengali channels and then his editorials in Sangbad Pratidin’s Sunday magazine Robbar. I have found he had a huge fan following of First Person, the editorial column. His style of prose and personal intimate words were really refreshing. His attachment to his parents, his loner-self, the symbols of Bengali middle class sentiments was evident from his writings. Probably that is the reason why I could probably relate to him, his world.

His immense knowledge about almost everything, his way of internalizing Rabindranath Tagore, his interest in Mahabharat, his sense of beauty, his dream to do films with Hollywood stars sitting in Kolkata and, most importantly, his desire to be a woman and subtle support to the LGBT movement through his own life were all signs of his superior intellectual self. His achievements were not his films but his life as a whole. A star has fallen off the sky of Bengal’s intelligentsia.

Standing in front of his house on that cloudy and gloomy Thursday morning, I realized I used to adore Rituparno Ghosh silently. I actually wanted to listen to him silently. I wanted to read as he did. I wanted to enrich myself following his words, works and apparent discipline in life like a voyeur. He had a lot more to give us. Like most of the talented rebels, Rituparno left us too early.

As his body was being taken out of his home, he was still smiling with his eyes closed. The sorrow was deep inside my heart. The painful feeling lingered.

A song still hovers in my mind as I look back to his face at the last journey:

Bonomali tumi porojonome hoiyo radha.