HANDS OF TRUST

Politics changes its colour so fast that sometimes it becomes difficult to track the changing colours. The recent meeting between West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee and anti-corruption crusader Anna Hazare has raised many questions. Why did Mamata Banerjee, who didn't approve of Anna Hazare's hunger strike at Delhi's Jantar Mantar over the Jan Lokpal Bill and had even abused Anna in close circle at that time, suddenly change her mind and embrace the old man ahead of the Lok Sabha polls? What was Anna's desperation to hold Mamata's hand to get into active politics? Anna used to maintain that politics is nothing but gutter and he distanced himself from his protegee Arvind Kejriwal when the Aam Admi Party was formed.

Many theories are doing the rounds. Let us be very clear that both Mamata Banerjee and Anna Hazare joined hands with a clear strategy in mind and to achieve their individual goals this Lok Sabha elecetions. The TMC chief has an aspiration. She is not uttering it in clear terms but she considers herself as one the Prime Ministerial candidates. She has her own national ambition after decimating the Left in Bengal. After quitting UPA II in September 2012, she gave a call for a Federal Front with the likes of Nitish Kumar, Navin Patnaik and Mulayam Singh Yadav provoking them over centre-state relations. The plan has been derailed by the initiative of the Left parties who are once again trying to get the regional players together to launch the oft-spoken Third Front. Mamata, at this moment, finds herself isolated in national politics. She needs to be politically relevant before the general elections.

Trinamool Congress has adapted a political line. They will not align with either Congress or Bharatiya Janata Party before the elections. They will try to get the maximum number of sears from West Bengal and turn the party into controlling force post elections. Mamata Banerjee is not yet disclosing her post poll strategy. Will she join NDA or give them outside support if they need more numbers to form the next government? It is not yet clear. TMC's campaign will be based on the performance of Mamata Banerjee's two and a half year government and how they want to make Bengal prominent in the national scene to get financial package for the state. Though allying with Congress will give TMC some advantage and help take its tally beyond 30, but TMC, so far, is talking of 'going alone' in Bengal. It doesn't mar their poll prospect though, despite the Left's attempt to reorganize their core vote base, BJP's likely increase in the vote percentage in Bengal and a split in anti-Left vote.

Mamata Banerjee wants to make some footprints outside Bengal. Originally TMC decided to field candidates in states like Tripura, Assam, Kerala and in some pockets of UP. Any political party in order to secure or retain the status of national party need to get certain percentage of votes across the country, if not seats. TMC wanted to make a dent into anti-Left votes mainly in states outside Bengal or make an attempt to win votes on individual local candidates' charisma. Beyond Bengal Mamata Banerjee doesn't hold a chance of winning too many seats this Lok Sabha elections.

At this juncture, Mamata's joining hands with Anna is very significant. To get out of the isolation, she needs an anchor in national politics. Her political options at the national level, before the poll, are limited. Anna gave her the oxygen. A sense of insecurity prevailed in Mamata's mind with the rise of AAP at the national level. Everyone started speaking of Arvind Kejriwal's simple lifestyle and how AAP connected with the people at the grassroots. AAP has also made an inroad into the vacuum available in this polarized political space. Mamata Banerjee, with her trademark cotton saree, hawai chappal and jhola, has always projected herself as the champion of the common man. She didn't like this medal shifting hands. Mamata, by tying up with Anna, is trying to compete with AAP to leave no room for them when it comes to being the 'controlling force' in the formation of the next government.

First of all she will have the weight of Anna Hazare's clean image behind her. Secondly, she can, by fielding some candidates from civil society, try to win some extra seats. Thirdly, she can mobilize more support for TMC and her pitch for Prime Minister's seat at the national level creating the buzz over Anna-Mamata joint initiative.

Anna Hazare, on the other hand, lost political significance after Kejriwal floated his party and won the Delhi assembly elections with massive support to become the chief minster. Anna wanted to make a comeback and his presence felt too. Despite the opposition crying foul over Mamata Banerjee's poor track record in curbing corruption, RTI mechanism and human rights issues, Anna, in the guise of his 17-point demand, sought to ally with Mamata. He can reactivate his civil society network and ensure his importance when the next government comes to power. Hoping to win 100 seats  across India and making Mamata the prime minister is to be considered as rhetoric for now.

Now let us come to the final theorty. If Mamata doesn't win many seats outside Bengal despite fielding candidates in various states, if Anna can't get much political mileage in terms of winning seats, who is going to lose or win? Of course not Mamata. Rather Arvind Kejriwal has a chance to lose out. As the trend is showing, Anna-Mamata will fight mainly those seats where AAP is going to contest. TMC will eat up their votes significantly. Who is going to benefit in this process? Ofcourse BJP. The impact of unreliable political player, AAP, can be minimized in terms of number of seats.

Some are saying this Anna-Mamata tie up is a BJP-RSS plant to defuse the AAP impact and get support from Mamata post elections. Do not forget Mamata can go a long way for Bengal's resurgence.